Friday, July 15, 2005

IL-06: Dems Should Follow GOP Lead

From Jeff Berkowitz at Public Affairs, we learn that Roskam is the man for the GOP in IL-06:
In short, State Senator Peter Roskam had too much and State Senator Carole Pankau had too little. Peter had been knocking on doors, including those in DC, since the beginning of this year, if not before. Carol, I am sure, found many of those doors long, since closed to her in June. The Haves and the Have-nots. A tale oft told in politics. Chalk up another one for the ole Boy’s network. Old habits die hard.

Me? At least I got one show out of this primary race, such as it was, and I got to know Senator Carole Pankau. She is a good, personable guest and we look forward to having her back on the show.

The 6th CD, although an open seat, is looking like a tougher and tougher race for the Democrats, which as of now has novice candidate Peter O’Malley taking on Christine Cegelis in their March primary. Cegelis surprised many by losing to Cong. Hyde in 2004 by a margin of only 56-44, and like Cong. Melissa Bean in the 8th CD in 2002, Cegelis never stopped running. However, still looks like a tough race for Christine, assuming she wins the primary. Roskam, the favorite to start with, can now marshall his resources and focus his message for the general. Somebody, quick-- bring something to DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel to help with his migraine.

This is why Republicans win. There will be no costly primary battle and no infighting highlighting any Republican candidate's short comings in IL-06. Yet on the Democratic side, we have Christine Cegelis, who has the organization, troops on the ground, name recognition and 5-times the funding of her Democatic opponent Peter O'Malley. But are those doors that Cegelis has been knocking on in DC for two years opening to her? Is the party supporting her? Are top Illinois pols endorsing her?

Nope.

Instead it looks like we are going to have a Democratic primary where O'Malley will have his lawyer bank account, fourth our of four finish in his only failed attempt at running for office and "DLC connections" highlighted and Cegelis will be called "too liberal" and "unelectable" over and over in the media. Then there's always the possibility of a political insider with deep pockets and no real support in the district will be anointed from high within the party at the last possible minute. Either way, Roskam and the GOP will just sit back, take notes, and save their money to dump on who ever the Democrats eventually run for the seat. After the Dems waste campaign funds bloodying each other first.

Brilliant.